Forecast 2009: Up in the Air

If pharma execs start upping their consumption of antihypertensives and anxiolytics (all branded, of course) in the months to come, it won't be a huge surprise. As we head into 2009, two remarkable developments—the collapse of the global economy and the election of Barack Obama as president—may be leaving them a bit stressed out. "They should be stressed," says attorney Daniel Kracov from his office at Arnold & Porter, in the belly of the Beltway beast. "The industry faces a truly unprecedented number of political and policy challenges."

Healthcare reform has hit critical mass, and pharma is poised to play a positive role if it so chooses. At the same time, the unemployment is rate expected to soar to as high as 10 percent and with more than 2 million people losing private insurance Big Pharma's prices are poised to become the target of rage and rhetoric. Says Carolyn Buck-Luce, head of Ernst & Young's pharma practice: "Any time there is an opportunity to make healthcare more affordable and accessible, that is good for the industry. What is not good is when the industry is expected to solve all the problems."